Despite being the world’s most mature market,US SVOD revenues will grow by $14 billion from $43 billion in 2021 to $56 billion in 2024. However, growth will be almost flat from 2024 to 2027 due to price competition and lower ARPUs from Netflix’s hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Netflix will remain the SVOD revenue winner. However, the platform will lose $1.4 billion in SVOD revenues between 2022 and 2027 due to lower ARPUs from 2023. Netflix will more than recoup these SVOD revenue losses with AVOD sales.”
Netflix will have 63 million subscribers by 2027 – down by 4 million on 2021. Hulu, Disney+, HBO and Paramount+ will each boast 40-50 million subscribers by 2027. Some consolidation – mergers and closures – is likely.