Africa will have 15.57 million paying SVOD subscriptions by 2028, up from 6.15 million at end-2022. Despite this fast growth, SVOD penetration rates will remain low, with only 7% of TV households paying for at least one subscription by 2028 –up from 4% at end-2022.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Take-up is inhibited by low disposable incomes. Limited fixed broadband penetration also stifles growth, with few mobile operators offering OTT options. Not all global SVOD platforms will start in every African country – restricting choice.”

Netflix will have 6.94 million subscribers by 2028 – or 45% of the region’s total. Disney+ will only have 1.29 million subscriptions by 2028, with roll-out expected to be restricted to Nigeria and South Africa. Paramount+ is only likely to start in South Africa. HBO has a distribution deal with Showmax.

Amazon Prime will start in Nigeria and South Africa in 2023. We forecast 3.01 million Amazon Prime Video subscribers by 2028. Apple TV+ launched in only eight African countries in November 2019, with 228,000 paying subs expected by 2028.